IPL 2012 Ranking Week 3 (23rd April 2012)

Why write this blog? I want to see a place where there can be some civil discussion and arguments about IPL (but not the variety you see in CricInfo or CricBuzz Chat window). I would appreciate if those of you who read share your thoughts!

The ranking is deliberately not using points table as sole criteria but project which team will finish on top of the table at the end of league phase based on what I know at end of each week. It is rather subjective, but I look at how a team is doing at home Vs. away, what kind of pitches are used, how settled is their combination, which key player is not available, has the team shown ability to scrape thru close games, has the team chased down big totals etc.

Next year I would like a database backend where I can show predictions for entire tournament and keep tweaking it every week and then provide readers a form to plug their own changes and see how it affects matches. I would like to incorporate things like no. of days rest and back to back away games and travel between games (kind of do strength of schedule calculation) …

So what is measure of success for my ranking ? In this first year, how do my predictions in a week pan out is good yardstick to use – so I got 3 of 10 wrong in Week2 and another 2 of 11 wrong in Week3, which I am afraid is too good a prediction to sustain until end of the tournament. The matches are getting closer and harder to guess.

One of those things I got wrong at the start of tournament was about RR and PWI, they have had impressive start, I waited couple of weeks before bumping them higher but can they perform when the pressure is on and WIN crucial games to qualify is question that cannot be answered now. Also what I got wrong was Mumbai Indians would clean-up everyone but are now struggling to get their player combination right.

Week4 is interesting in couple of ways

  1. At end of week4, Tournament gets to half way stage and all teams expect DC would complete 9 games
  2. Australian Test players return RR, DD and CSK may benefit (or DD & CSK may start having foreign player combo issues)
  3. At this point looks like 18 points and good NRR may get any team a top 4 spot, also remember one trashing will send NRR sliding down.
  4. So will try to incorporate NRR into Ranking after week 6.

Team

Week2 Rank

Week3 Rank

Week3 points

Week4 points (Projected)

Week3 Schedule and projections

Legend : (A) àAway (H) àHome


G
àWin R
à Loss

Delhi Daredevils

Expected # wins 11 of 16

2

1

8

12

PWI(Away) , MI(home) , RR(home)
Shewag captaincy can be inspiring and lame within span of couple of overs. Their Bowling on flatish tracks is a challenge and as are their Indian batsmen

Chennai Super Kings Expected # wins 10 of 16

3

2

8

10

RCB(Away) , KXIP(Home)
CSK have a game plan and confidence to execute it well but like the RR game their Safety first approach makes them more vulnerable than they need to be. Also S Raina form should start to raise some concern

Mumbai Indians

Expected # wins 10 of 16

1

3

6

10

KXIP(Away) , DD(Away) ,DC (Home)
Slinga out is a big blow. They are struggling at home, so couple of away games might be what doc. Ordered. But weird playing combinations being thrown together by MI

Pune Warriors India

Expected # wins 9 of 16

7

4

8

12

DD(Home),
DC(Home)
Week 3 PWI was impressive, they had chance to win 3 on road. Dada bowled an inspiring spell but their Bowling still needs to improve. Also can they keep their home court advantage ?

Rajasthan Royals

Expected # wins 9 of 16

5

5

8

10

RCB(Home),
DD(away)
When Watson returns they have chance to top the table but can they beat DD and RCB in the same week ?

Kolkata Knight Riders Expected # wins 9 of 16

4

6

8

12

DC(Home),
RCB(Home)
Have a tough Schedule in back half, they are struggling to get their combinations right, should have had 10 points by now.

Royal Challengers Bangalore Expected # wins 8 of 16

6

7

6

8

RR(Away) ,
CSK(Home),
KKR(Away)
RCB Indian bowling combination is hurting them and so is V Kholi form. But C Gayle is playing longish innings.

Kings XI Punjab

Expected # wins 5 of 16

8

8

6

6

MI(Home),
CSK (Away)
They need to pull more WINs against Top 4-5 teams, to have any serious chance of finishing top4, so another win against MI or CSK is needed

Deccan Chargers

Expected # wins 2 of 16

9

9

0

0

KKR(Away), PWI(Away),
MI(Away)
Ownership reaping rewards of not playing their auction cards well.

 

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