IPL 2014 Ranking and Points Projection – 05/11/2014

IPL 2014 Ranking and Points Projection – 05/11/2014

 

Prev Ranking Ranking Teams

Match Played

Won

Lost

Points

Future Win

Future Points

Future

1 1 Kings XI Punjab 9 7 2 14 3 20 LWWWL
2 2 Chennai Super Kings 9 7 2 14 3 20 WWLWL
3 3 Rajasthan Royals 9 6 3 12 3 18 LWWLW
6 4 Sunrisers Hyderabad 8 4 4 8 4 16 WWLWLW
4 5 Kolkata Knight Riders 9 4 5 8 3 14 LWWWL
5 6 Royal Challengers Bangalore 9 3 6 6 2 10 WLLLW
8 7 Mumbai Indians 8 2 6 4 2 8 LWLLWL
7 8 Delhi Daredevils 9 2 7 4 1 6 LLLLW

 

  • Unless KXIP, CSK need to one WIN to qualify for play-offs
    • KXIP probably going to have few more like KKR match and depends on how they bowl with smaller totals
    • CSK death bowling is the ache’s heal
  • RR Continue to hang-on to 3rd spot and favourites to make play-off
  • SRH bowling probably giving them edge over RCB and KKR
  • KKR bowling did well against KXIP but not unbeatable
  • RCB Yuvi hitting form good news but probably too late …
  • DD out of this one more losss MI out as well
  • BTW I got about 6 of 13 prediction correct 

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IPL 2013

IPL 2013 Ranking and Points Projection – 5/9/2013

 

Ranking Prev Ranking Teams Match Played Won Lost (home -away) Points NRR Future Win Future Lose Final Points Home-Away Predicitions Matches left vs. top5
1 1 Chennai Super Kings 13 10 3 (2-1) 20 0.687 2 1 24 1–2 LWW

2

2 2 Mumbai Indians 12 8 4 (0-4) 16 0.644 3 1 22 2–2 LWWW

2

3 4 Rajasthan Royals 12 8 4 (0-4) 16 0.441 2 2 20 1–3 LWLW

3

4 3 Royal Challengers Bangalore 12 7 5 (1-4) 14 0.568 2 2 18 2–2 LWWL

1

5 5 Sunrisers Hyderabad 12 7 5 (1-4) 14 -0.228 1 3 16 2–2 LLLW

2

6 6 Kings XI Punjab 11 5 6 (1-5) 10 0.171 3 2 16 4—1 WWLWL

4

7 7 Kolkata Knight Riders 12 4 8 (3-5) 8 -0.273 2 2 12 2–2 WLWL

2

8 8 Delhi Daredevils 12 3 9 (4-5) 6 -0.778 2 2 10 1–3 WLWL

2

9 9 Pune Warriors 12 2 10 (4-6) 4 -1.291 2 2 8 3–1 LWLW

1

 

Added couple of more details à breaking out loss with details how many lost at home and away, also added my predictions for each team and also games left against Top5

  • CSK had an off-day but bounced back like a table topper. Clear favourites to top table at this point though they have all 2 away games against other Top5!
  • Mumbai still hot at home but they are playing RR SRH at home, which have an impact on where they end-up in the table.
  • Royals just win last game fortress Jaipur against CSK but they need to do better away à I have them winning away @ SRH, which is crucial game for both teams
  • RCB starting to fade like last year,they have rapidly descended from #1 to #4 in 10 days in my ranking! but have only 1 game left against Top5
  • SRH their batting is weak, I am not sure if they have fire power to beat KXIP @ Mohali and still have a chance of making it to play-offs if they over perform my projection.
  • Kings XI has potential to upset a few as they play Top5 in 4 of 5 games (with 4 of these @ home)! They still can make it if they knock-off RR and SRH at home as I am projecting and win against RCB or MI.
  • KKR clearly not clicking and they have 2 games against Top5 and have two home games in Ranchi
  • DD are dangerous for Playoff aspirants and can play spoilsport

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IPL 2014 (05/02/2014)

IPL 2014 Ranking and Points Projection – 05/02/2014

 

Ranking Teams

Match Played

Won

Lost

Points

Future Win

Future Lose

Future

Points

1 Kings XI Punjab 5 5 0 10 6 3 22
2 Chennai Super Kings 5 4 1 8 6 3 20
3 Rajasthan Royals 5 3 2 6 5 4 16
4 Kolkata Knight Riders 5 2 3 4 5 4 14
5 Royal Challengers Bangalore 5 2 3 4 4 5 12
6 Sunrisers Hyderabad 5 2 3 4 4 5 12
7 Delhi Daredevils 5 2 3 4 3 6 10
8 Mumbai Indians 5 0 5 0 4 5 8

 

  • Unless KXIP, CSK the stumble big time they are going to make play-offs probably top the table too
    • KXIP even though Shewag is playing like SRT of IPL2013, strong batting and over performing bowling, need to see how they adopt to indian wickets
    • CSK have a top heavy batting line-up and Indian bowlers, probably an all-rounder short
  • RR clear favourites to make play-off have one of the most balanced teams this IPL. RR probably going to straggle away every one with their tight bowling but batting still a concern
  • KKR, RCB & SRH to battle out for last play-off spot
    • SRH will win when 2 of SD, AF & DW fire, Mishra bowling a worry
    • KKR are they going miss Rajat Bhatia & Iqbal Abdulla (not effective in 2013 but still effective with Sunil ) ? YP underperforming again!
  • DD – they need to use DK and KP effectively, still do not look like a strong outfit …
  • MI massive let down, too many cooks spoiling the food?
    • I do not see them running the table from here on but dangerous team for top 4 to face.

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IPL 2012 Ranking Week 3 (23rd April 2012)

Why write this blog? I want to see a place where there can be some civil discussion and arguments about IPL (but not the variety you see in CricInfo or CricBuzz Chat window). I would appreciate if those of you who read share your thoughts!

The ranking is deliberately not using points table as sole criteria but project which team will finish on top of the table at the end of league phase based on what I know at end of each week. It is rather subjective, but I look at how a team is doing at home Vs. away, what kind of pitches are used, how settled is their combination, which key player is not available, has the team shown ability to scrape thru close games, has the team chased down big totals etc.

Next year I would like a database backend where I can show predictions for entire tournament and keep tweaking it every week and then provide readers a form to plug their own changes and see how it affects matches. I would like to incorporate things like no. of days rest and back to back away games and travel between games (kind of do strength of schedule calculation) …

So what is measure of success for my ranking ? In this first year, how do my predictions in a week pan out is good yardstick to use – so I got 3 of 10 wrong in Week2 and another 2 of 11 wrong in Week3, which I am afraid is too good a prediction to sustain until end of the tournament. The matches are getting closer and harder to guess.

One of those things I got wrong at the start of tournament was about RR and PWI, they have had impressive start, I waited couple of weeks before bumping them higher but can they perform when the pressure is on and WIN crucial games to qualify is question that cannot be answered now. Also what I got wrong was Mumbai Indians would clean-up everyone but are now struggling to get their player combination right.

Week4 is interesting in couple of ways

  1. At end of week4, Tournament gets to half way stage and all teams expect DC would complete 9 games
  2. Australian Test players return RR, DD and CSK may benefit (or DD & CSK may start having foreign player combo issues)
  3. At this point looks like 18 points and good NRR may get any team a top 4 spot, also remember one trashing will send NRR sliding down.
  4. So will try to incorporate NRR into Ranking after week 6.

Team

Week2 Rank

Week3 Rank

Week3 points

Week4 points (Projected)

Week3 Schedule and projections

Legend : (A) àAway (H) àHome


G
àWin R
à Loss

Delhi Daredevils

Expected # wins 11 of 16

2

1

8

12

PWI(Away) , MI(home) , RR(home)
Shewag captaincy can be inspiring and lame within span of couple of overs. Their Bowling on flatish tracks is a challenge and as are their Indian batsmen

Chennai Super Kings Expected # wins 10 of 16

3

2

8

10

RCB(Away) , KXIP(Home)
CSK have a game plan and confidence to execute it well but like the RR game their Safety first approach makes them more vulnerable than they need to be. Also S Raina form should start to raise some concern

Mumbai Indians

Expected # wins 10 of 16

1

3

6

10

KXIP(Away) , DD(Away) ,DC (Home)
Slinga out is a big blow. They are struggling at home, so couple of away games might be what doc. Ordered. But weird playing combinations being thrown together by MI

Pune Warriors India

Expected # wins 9 of 16

7

4

8

12

DD(Home),
DC(Home)
Week 3 PWI was impressive, they had chance to win 3 on road. Dada bowled an inspiring spell but their Bowling still needs to improve. Also can they keep their home court advantage ?

Rajasthan Royals

Expected # wins 9 of 16

5

5

8

10

RCB(Home),
DD(away)
When Watson returns they have chance to top the table but can they beat DD and RCB in the same week ?

Kolkata Knight Riders Expected # wins 9 of 16

4

6

8

12

DC(Home),
RCB(Home)
Have a tough Schedule in back half, they are struggling to get their combinations right, should have had 10 points by now.

Royal Challengers Bangalore Expected # wins 8 of 16

6

7

6

8

RR(Away) ,
CSK(Home),
KKR(Away)
RCB Indian bowling combination is hurting them and so is V Kholi form. But C Gayle is playing longish innings.

Kings XI Punjab

Expected # wins 5 of 16

8

8

6

6

MI(Home),
CSK (Away)
They need to pull more WINs against Top 4-5 teams, to have any serious chance of finishing top4, so another win against MI or CSK is needed

Deccan Chargers

Expected # wins 2 of 16

9

9

0

0

KKR(Away), PWI(Away),
MI(Away)
Ownership reaping rewards of not playing their auction cards well.

 

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IPL 2012 Ranking Week2 (16th April 2012)

Week two of IPL 2012 was interesting, DD looks strong team and should perform well.

Quite a few close games à
MI Vs. DC, RCB Vs. CSK, KKR Vs. KXIP.

There were plenty of upsets àPWI Vs CSK, KKR Vs. KXIP, RCB Vs. RR.

RCB, CSK, KKR are starting to look vulnerable and couple of them can easily end-up as the bottom 5.

RR and PWI have a good shot at Top 4, if they continue to win few games every week.

Team

Week1 Rank

Week2 Rank

Week2 points

Week3 points (Projected)

Week3 Schedule and projections

Legend : (A) àAway (H) àHome


G
àWin R
à Loss

Mumbai Indians Expected # wins 11 of 16

1

1

6

8

DD(Home),
KXIP (Home)
They have lost some of their MOJO or thought they had already had top 2 spot covered ?

Delhi Daredevils Expected # wins 11 of 16

4

2

4

10

MI(Away) , DC(Home) , PWI(Home)

Early days they are now trending to top the table but will their gamble on pace attack work all around India ?

Chennai Super Kings Expected # wins 9 of 16

2

3

4

8

PWI(Home) , RR(Home)

Now must win home games for CSK, otherwise they will be depending on how others perform for shot at Top 4.

Kolkata Knight Riders Expected # wins 9 of 16

5

4

4

8

KXIP(Away) , DC(Away)

They are “the chockers” in IPL, will have the tag until they win a Trophy. They have brutal second half schedule, they better start winning easy games

Rajasthan Royals Expected # wins 9 of 16

6

5

6

8

DC(Home) , CSK(Away)

They have nice batting line-up but Indian bowlers is their Achilles’ heel

Royal Challengers Bangalore Expected # wins 8 of 16

3

6

2

6

PWI(home) , KXIP(Away)

Massively under performing! C Gayle was elixir last year, who will it be this year ?

Pune Warriors India Expected # wins 7 of 16

7

7

6

6

RCB(Away) , CSK(Away) , DD(Away)

Tough week! If PWI can pinch one, they would have done well. Their bowling is still weak.

Kings XI Punjab Expected # wins 5 of 16

8

8

4

4

KKR(Home) , RCB(Home) ,
MI(Away)

They stole one at KKR, can they take another one

Deccan Chargers Expected # wins 3 of 16

9

9

0

0

RR(Away) , DD(Away) , KKR(Home)

They have played only two games but this week is going to be no different

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IPL 2012 Ranking Week One (9th April 2012)

It has been a pretty dull week one (short one) of IPL 2012, other than Mumabi Indians Vs. Pune Warriors India game none was even close. Pune Warriors India and Rajastan Royals certainly over performed and upset better teams. Looks like Deccan Chargers is going to be at the bottom of table competing with Kings XI Punjab for last two spots.

Team Week0 Rank Week1 Rank Week1 points Week2 points (Projected) Week2 Schedule and projections
Legend : (A) àAway (H) àHome
GàWin à Loss
Mumbai Indians
Expected # wins 12 of 16
1 1 2
6 Week2 – DC(A) & RR(H)how long is Tendulkar out? Last year MI lost twice to RR and KXIP, looks like they will continue the trend this year after loss to PWI at home
Chennai Super Kings
Expected # wins 11 of 16
2 2 2 6 Week2 – DD(A), RCB(H)& PWI(A)They may have to WIN couple of away games against MI, RCB, DD & KKR
Royal Challengers Bangalore Expected # wins 10 of 16 3 3 2 6 Week2 – KKR(H), CSK (A), RR(H)How long is Chris Gayle out? Interesting they played Murali and Vettori
Delhi Daredevils
Expected # wins 10 of 16
5 4
2 4 Week2 – CSK(H)M Jayawardene & K Petersien back their Batting should be a lot better
Kolkata Knight Riders Expected # wins 9 of 16 4 5 0 4 Week3 – RCB(A), RR (H), KXIP(A)They need to get their combination right
Rajasthan Royals
Expected # wins 7 of 16
8 6 4 4 Week2 à
MI (A), KKR(A) & RCB(A)Tough week2 but need to WIN one to get to 10 points before S Watson returns
Pune Warriors India
Expected # wins 6 of 16
9 7 4 4 Week2 à
KXIP (A) & CSK(H)Looks like PWI will perform well at home but can they beat CSK at home?
Kings XI Punjab
Expected # wins 4 of 16
6 8 0 2 Week2 à
PWI(H) & KKR(H)Marsh hurt and not having quality Indian batsmen/bowlers is going to hurt them
Deccan Chargers
Expected # wins 3 of 16
7 9 0 0 Week2 à
MI(A)Not sure if Sangakara will make a difference, how long is A Mishra out?

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IPL 2012 Pre-Tournament Power Ranking

This power ranking is based roughly on team composition before the start of the tournament and the assumption top five teams win a majority of their home games and win majority of their games against bottom four. Will be publishing individual team win / lose forecasting in subsequent posts, so that particular team fans can follow their team progress. Plan is to update power rankings at end of each week Monday thru Sunday. This year the top 4 finishers of IPL 2011 are still strong  and only Delhi Daredevils have augmented their weak batting line-up to challenge the top 4. Projecting 20 points as cut-off for qualifying for knock-out stage, since there are 4 fairly weak teams at the bottom, who may be league bottom dwellers again and pretty much out of reckoning at the end of week 4 of the tournament.

Team

Pre-Tournament Power Ranking

Mumbai Indians

Expected # wins 13 of 16

1

Best squad Ambani money can buy but will that yield championship?

They pre-tournament favourites to top table

Seem to peak early in IPL 2010 and IPL 2011 Player Rotation going to be problem, after one defeat they will be tempted to try another combo. Players like D Karthik, K Pollard need to click on rare occasion they get to bat

Chennai Super Kings

Expected # wins 11 of 16

2

Been there and done that as a team for past 3 years!! Weak Indian fast bowling choice but they will play Jadeja & Ashwin

M Hussey , B Hilfenhaus missing for 9 matches –> maybe their investment in Bailey will payoff after 4 years

A bit of bother in Couple of batting spots – M Vijay not inform and getting Saha/Anirudh batting slot correct

Royal Challengers Bangalore

Expected # wins 11 of 16

3

Getting the foreign player combination right –>batsmen & Bowler going to be tough

C Gayle, V Kolhi and AB devillers depart early, RCB batting in trouble

Team balance going to be tough maintain – Indian Batsmen weak and lack of top flight Indian spin bowler

Kolkata Knight Riders Expected # wins 10 of 16

4

Gautam as Captain is just too nervous and it show in close games!

Getting the foreign player combination right is going to be tough

Rajat Bhatia, Lakshmi Ratan over performed last year but teams will have plans for their slower ones . Can Iqbal Abdulla shine again?

Delhi Daredevils

Expected # wins 9 of 16

5

Getting the foreign player combination right –>batsmen & Bowler going to be tough.

Batting strengthened K Petersen /Warner, M Jayawardena and V Shewag around Venu Rao & N Ojha can be handy

They lack quality spinners and allrounders last year they wanted fast pitch and got regular fare in Delhi

Kings XI Punjab

Expected # wins 7 of 16

6

Who is going to be there Paul Valthaty this year ?

There Foreign player combo is weird Gilly almost gone- last year except for two innings he was dreadful, D Hussey has not clicked in IPL, Shaun Marsh coming-off bad season

Deccan Chargers

Expected # wins 5 of 16

7

Under powered Indian batsmen

Ishant Sharma injury and trading P Ojha  have left them with one quality Indian bowler – A Mishra

Rajasthan Royals

Expected # wins 4 of 16

8

They are going miss Shane Watson (9 Games).

Not sure R Dravid deserves this kind of IPL farewell (maybe he will play next year)

Pune Warriors

Expected # wins 4 of 16

9

Sitting out Auction hurt them they do not  have  enough player

Really having S Ganguly lead is right direction for new franchise??

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